Valencia CF vs Real Madrid Match Preview

Valencia CF vs Real Madrid Match Preview

Stadium: Mestalla

Date: 20.01.2013; 21:00 CET

Semi Final, 2nd leg, Copa Del Rey

Coaches: Ernesto Valverde and Jose Mourinho

Valencia CF

Last match against Real Madrid was terrible for Valencia CF as the team lost 5-0 at home in the Mestalla. I was personally expecting a victory for Valencia CF and predicted a 2-1 win for Valencia CF, but the team went on to have one of its worst match in recent history and conceded 5 goals. Most goals came within 10 minutes though, but 5 goals are 5 goals and it was a terrible loss.

The match before that, the one in the cup ended with Real Madrid winning 2-0, although Valencia CF were the better team and deserved a win then, at the very least a draw. It wasn't to be though as Real Madrid's fast counter attacks really punished Valencia CF and through Higuain and Guardado's own goal they managed to beat Valencia CF.

Valencia CF also missed a chance to catch up to the champions league spots, as Real Betis and Malaga both stumbled over the weekend and lost points. Even with Valencia's loss though, the team is still pretty close to the champions league spots with only 5 points down to Real Betis, but expecting some difficult matches the next two weeks, with Deportivo La Coruna and then FC Barcelona to be faced.

Valencia CF coach Ernesto Valverde also has trouble in picking the team, with Robero Soldado being injured in the last match and out of the squad, Albelda still not recovering from injury, Parejo out for 3 weeks with injury as well. This could mean that Sergio Canales plays for the first time in a year now, or Valverde decides to play with more wingers, trying to overrun Real Madrid like that.

Valencia CF squad:
Goalkeepers: Diego Alves, Vicent Guaita.
Defenders: Cissokho, Rami, Víctor Ruiz, Ricardo Costa, Pereira, Barragán.

Midfielders: Guardado, Mario Arques, Éver, Tino Costa, Viera, Piatti, Canales, Bernat.

Forwards: Jonas and Valdez.

Technical Details Valencia CF (probable setups):

Formation: 4-3-3

Line-up: Guaita; Joao, Rami, R. Costa, Cissokho; Ruiz, Tino, Banega; Piatti, Valdez, Bernat.

Tactics: Medium defensive line, own half pressure, mixed passing, mixed attacks.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid on the other hand are coming to this match as a reformed team. Coming to the series of matches against Valencia CF they were a defeated team, but two matches in and they have found their stride and form again. Truth be told Real Madrid were outplayed in the first match, but what luck, what referring shenanigans, what silly mistakes by Valencia CF players and they managed to get themselves a nice 2-0 win over Valencia CF.

Last match Real Madrid came in packing though and just destroyed Valencia CF in the first half. Cristiano Ronaldo was able to exploit Ricardo Costa on the right at will and with Gago being a non factor in midfield, simple opportunities became 100% goal scoring chances. Xabi Alonso was also more like his old self in the midfield and was able to really spread the ball nicely, feeding the wingers with passes. 

The second half was different as Valencia CF improved and Real Madrid were content to sit back and defend for most of the match as they had a big 5-0 lead and didn't need to waste too much energy.

With the last 5-0 win over Valencia CF, Real Madrid have climbed the ladder to 40 points, though they are still far off from FC Barcelona, who sit on 55 points, even though they lost their first match of the season this past weekend.

Jose Mourinho is not likely to make much changes to the squad, the biggest change I think we are going to see is probably Adan being on goal, with possibly Khedira getting a rest and Essien starting. Other than that Benzema is also likely to start this time, possibly even Modric over Ozil as well.

Real Madrid squad:
Goalkeepers: Casillas, Adán, and Tomás Mejías.
Defenders: Varane, Coentrão, Carvalho, Arbeloa, Albiol, and Nacho.
Midfielders: Khedira, Özil, Alonso, Essien, Modric, Callejón, and Di María.
Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuaín, and Morata.

Technical Details Real Madrid (probable setups):

Formation: 4-2-3-1

Line-up: Casillas; Arbeloa, Varane, Albiol, Coentrao; Xabi, Essien; Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo; Benzema.

Tactics: Low defensive line, own half pressure, mostly wide wing attacks, long balls from the middle.

Result Prediction:

Valencia CF 1-1 Real Madrid

Well I'm lowering my expectations after the last two matches. Yes Valencia CF have Joao returning again to the squad and likely Cissokho starting as left back, so the defense will be more solid, but I just can't see the team winning over Real Madrid at this point. As you may remember in the first match preview I wrote that I expected RM to turn their season around in the second half of the season and just hoped it won't be against Valencia CF, but it seems that's exactly against whom they turned their season around.

So I expect Valencia CF to finally score, but also concede one goal from a counter attack. Probably Valdez scoring with a header, from a corner kick.

Fernando Gago to leave Valencia CF

Fernando Gago is most likely going to leave Valencia CF this winter transfer window. I've learned that Fernando Gago is most likely going to leave by the end of January and the decision to leave Fernando Gago out of the squad to face Real Madrid is due to the fact he will leave and not a technical decision as has been reported.

In fact this coincides with the report in Spanish media that Valencia CF are looking to bring Javi Fuego to Valencia CF this transfer window. As I've reported Valencia CF has reached a personal agreement with the player, but the club will now push to buy him right now and not wait until the summer to get him free.

Reportedly Valencia CF is willing to pay as much as 1.5 million euros for Javi Fuego to bring him right now. Of course Gago's transfer is being negotiated right now and if everything works out fine, he should be sold in few days.

Guaita not affected by FC Barcelona interest

Valencia CF Vicente Guaita

Vicente Guaita's agent Vicente Fores said that FC Barcelona is interested in his client and wants to bring him at Camp Nou, but that Vicente Guaita is only focused on Valencia CF.

He said that Vicente Guaita isn't as pleased with his situation at Valencia CF as he could be, as he hasn't been starting regularly, but said that Guaita is focused solely on Valencia CF right now. That said he confirmed that one of the goalkeepers is very likely going to leave in the summer and said it could be either Guaita or Diego.

We knew this before of course, its been obvious two very quality goalkeepers can't feature so irregularly and one of them will have to go in the summer. As I've written about it, Manuel Llorente would like Guaita to stay because he is Valencianista and he has pressure from the fans to have more Spanish players at the club.

Ultimately it will depend on how each of the goalkeepers perform, Valverde's input and which one gets the higher offer. I believe Guaita has stronger chances of staying, but if there is a big offer for him and Diego has been performing better, Guaita could leave.

Its said that FC Barcelona are willing to spend about 15 million on a new goalkeeper, Guaita's release clause is at 20 million euros, so he is fairly safe from a buy-out, but only has two years left on his contract.

Roberto Soldado injured

Roberto Soldado is injured and won't be in the squad to face Real Madrid in the cup. He got his injury in the last match against Real Madrid and has a bruise and muscle tear, not very serious, but he will be rested just as a precaution. He should be available for the next La Liga match though against Deportive La Coruna.

Another bad news is that David Albelda won't be in the squad to face Real Madrid either, as he still hasn't fully recovered from his injury and would need one more week of recovery.

Valencia CF 0-5 Real Madrid Match Report

As I wrote in my quick half time report Valencia CF played terribly this in the first half and even though the second half was better, by that time Real Madrid had the huge lead and were preserving their stamina, content to just sit back for most of the time. This was mostly the case in the first half as well, with Valencia CF attacking and Real Madrid sitting back and catching Valencia CF on the counter attack, but they were pressing more in the first half and were playing differently in the second half.

What to write about the first half. Four of the five goals came from a counter attacking situation, most of them on the right side of the field, though some through the center as well, with Gago failing to provide sufficient cover for the defense.

First goal Di Maria passes the ball to Higuain who is quick to react and scores past Valdez, with the goalkeeper not being able to do anything.

For second goal Cristiano Ronaldo was pretty much playing games with R. Costa and easily tricked him to put him out of place, passes the ball to Di Maria who was better positioned than Guardado and scores.

Just a minute later a mistake in the midfield grants the ball to Real Madrid, Cristiano Ronaldo is quickly released, as Ricardo Costa try to block the ball fails and Ronaldo runs in the penalty, outmaneuvers Rami and scores. Diego Alves was also quite terrible for this goal, although he did save the net several times, so overall he had a good match.

Then again from the right side, from a cross by Ozil I believe it was to Higuain, who just touches the ball to lead it to Cristiano Ronaldo and this one completely unmarked scores.

Then the fifth goal came from a simple header by Alonso in the middle of the park, it was a dead ball situation and Di Maria easily outruns Ruiz gets the ball, runs towards goal and completely unchallenged scores.

I'm just going to sum up what I wrote in the half time report. Basically it all came down to Ricardo Costa who just failed miserably to cover on the right wing and most of the goals came through there. Second was Guardado's terribly positioning for 2 of the goals in the defense and finally Gago failing to provide any sort of cover for the defense.

Overall the first half was just terrible, with absolute horrific defending.

Second half started and it was like a different match. Valencia CF went on to dominate proceedings, had several decent chances as well, but Real Madrid were content to sit back and defend with their huge 5-0 lead from the first half.

Ernesto Valverde saw his error and instantly changed Gago for Barragan, who went on to the right back position, R. Costa went to center defense and Ruiz went in midfield to play as defensive midfielder and actually provided a lot more cover than Gago did.

In fact I've talked about Ruiz being able to play defensive midfielder quite a lot of times, especially knowing his great and accurate passing and it seemed quite good. We'll have to evaluate him at a more stressful match, where there is more pressure, like say the Real Madrid of the first half, but for his time spend there in the second half he was good.

Of course Barragan easily dealt with Cristiano Ronaldo and again I just wonder why start Ricardo Costa there over Barragan? It just didn't make any sense. In fact I guarantee that with just that change Valencia CF would have probably been down only one goal and not the five. Because if you look at when the goals came in, its in a matter of 10 minutes, after the players lost morale and conviction after the second goal and who wouldn't? Ronaldo was playing games with R. Costa, he could have juggled his way into the goal.

Here are some of the chances for Valencia CF in the second half and I only took notes until about the 70th minute, since there was no point taking for the whole match.

49 minute Piatti shoots from long range and hits the bar.
52 min. Conetrao saves Real Madrid net from the line, after a good header by Rami.
58 min. Tino Costa shoots after a rebound, from just outside the penalty area, but Cassilas saves.
60 min. Barragan passes Conetrao and goes into the penalty area, passes the ball to the lone Jonas, but this one shot is inaccurate and goes above the goal.
63 min. Jonas leaves the ball to reach Soldado and runs into the penalty area, Soldado instantly passes the ball to Jonas, but once again Jonas shot is poor and the ball goes wide off goal.
68 min. Cross by Barragan to Valdez, but Valdez shot just goes wide.
76 min. Good pass by Banega to Valdez, but Cassilas was alert and comes out of goal to block Valdez shot/pass and the ball goes into corner.

Technical details:
Valencia CF  (0):  Alves; R. Costa, Rami, V. Ruiz, Guardado; Gago (Barragán, min.46'), T. Costa; Piatti (Bernat, min.77'), Éver, Jonas; Soldado (Valdez, min.64').
Real Madrid (5):  Casillas; Arbeloa, Varane, Albiol, Coentrao; Khedira (Callejón, min.74'), Alonso (Essien, min.58'), Cristiano, Özil (Modric, min.66'), Di María; Higuaín.
Goals: 0-1 Min 9’, Higuaín. 0-2 Min 34', Di María. 0-3 Min 35', Cristiano Ronaldo. 0-4 Min 40', Cristiano Ronaldo. 0-5 Min 45', Di María.

Player Ratings:
Diego 6.5 - Not much he can do about the goals, he was left hanging by a terrible defense in the first half. Even so, he actually had several great saves to keep Valencia CF loosing by only 5 goals.
R. Costa 3 - I mean come on. He was just terrible as right back. Slow, cumbersome, bad positioning, you name it. Was good in the central role in the second half, but the damage was already done.
Rami 4.5 - Made some interceptions, but was played by Ronaldo and Ozil and Higuain time and time again in the first half.
Ruiz 4 - Terrible positioning, was slow as seen by his race to the ball against Di Maria that caused the 5th goal, it was just bad defending overall. Did a better job in the second half as defensive midfielder.
Guardado 4.5 - Not troubled too much from the left wing, but when it came down to him defending in the penalty area he had terrible positioning.
Gago 4 - Completely failed the team, was invisible in the midfield, failing to provide any cover for the defense or get the ball from defense and into offense.
Tino 6 - Worked very hard, was simple in his passing and what little Valencia CF could do in the first half came mostly from him. Very good in the second half, having few shots on goal as well.
Banega 5 - Lost the ball so many times, was overly confident and just strutted around doing nothing. Improved in the second half, but the match was already over by then.
Piatti 6 - Was the most active player in the fist half, tried to do stuff, cut back in the middle and tried to make things happen. Had a few shots, provided some good passes, but the teammates were just not there to help him out.
Soldado 5 - Completely shut down, he barely saw the ball all match long.
Jonas 5.5 - Did find himself into dangerous positions and tried several through balls, most of those failed though, but was active, had at least 2 good opportunities, but his shot accuracy is zero.
Subs:
Barragan 6.5 - Completely shut down Ronaldo and provided much needed support to Piatti, providing few good crosses and passes into dangerous positions, one pass finding Jonas alone. Why wasn't he a starter?
Valdez 5 - Was more dangerous than Soldado and was a nuisance to the Real Madrid defense, but didn't get a chance to score.
Bernat N/A - not enough time.

Valencia CF 0-5 Real Madrid Half-Time

What a trashing from Real Madrid. Half time and already 5 goals down. Let me just write where Valencia CF coach Ernseto Valverde went wrong.

Firs is the right back choice. Why choose Rocardo Costa to go against Cristiano Ronaldo? Ronaldo is extremely fast, Ricardo Costa is relatively slow, especially for a right back, he is absolutely slow. This was his first mistake, you can't put a turtle at right back. I'd put the worst real right back over a good, but slow defender.

Antonio Barragan isn't even bad, its more of a strange belief that somehow he is terrible, but he is not, he is actually quite good, very fast, very attack minded and while not the best defensively he at least has great pace. He could have easily covered Cristiano Ronaldo. The biggest problem with Barragan is that he is so attacking, most of the time he is more forward than the winger and leaves space at the back, but you could instruct him to not be as offensive and only go to a certain point. With the slow Ricardo Costa we see what happens.

The next mistake he made was putting Guardado over Cissokho. The signs were there from last match, I wrote how he dealt good on the left, before Di Maria came in and he had trouble dealing with him. But more importantly he is not a defender, he doesn't have the defensive instincts, the doesn't have the positioning and as we saw he was at fault for at least two goals. He was positioned time and time again in the wrong spot in the penalty area, we clearly saw this with the 4th goal.

So why Guardado over Cissokho? I mean Cissokho is fast, strong, great defending sense. Not as great in attack, but Valencia CF barely attacked all match long, the most they came was the final third and that is where they lost most of the balls.

Third mistake is playing Banega too far forward yet again. I think it may be a fluke and Banega being too adventurousness  but its clear this is a tactical decision to play Banega way forward. But he is not an attacking midfielder, he is a box to box central midfielder, why play him so high and forward?

Valencia CF actually lost the midfield battle this time around, Gago also failed to provide cover for the defense or stop any counter attack and this is what I mean when I say he is not a defensive midfielder. Yeah he is probably the best on that position when Albelda isn't here, but he is not a defensive midfielder.

I don't even want to talk about the wings, which were non existent. Jonas plays too centrally, Ricardo Costa failed to support Piatti and Soldado was over crowded and easily marshaled.

And Real Madrid still aren't playing good, its just that they are playing effective football with 1 goal per 2 chances, with strong counter attacks.

That is not to say I blame Ernesto Valverde completely, no the individual players are playing terribly. Rami is playing terribly, Ruiz is playing terribly and about Costa and Guardado I already wrote. Gago also isn't closing down the middle, the midfield is loosing the ball to easy, etc...

Valencia CF vs Real Madrid Match Preview

Valencia CF vs Real Madrid Match Preview

Stadium: Mestalla

Date: 20.01.2013; 21:00 CET

Semi Final, 2nd leg, Copa Del Rey(crazy me) La Liga 20th matchday

Coaches: Ernesto Valverde and Jose Mourinho

Valencia CF

Valencia CF is coming to this match after a 2-0 loss from Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in the Copa Del Rey. Even though Valencia CF outplayed Real Madrid for the most part in that match, some silly individual mistakes, coupled with paid referees made sure Valencia CF would loose 2-0. You can read my match report and find out more. To sum it up Valencia CF had the possession, chances, attacking and in a very unfortunate way it still managed to loose. 

The first goal for Real Madrid came after a mistake by either Tino or Parejo, couldn't tell at the time, where he gave away the ball and there was no one in the middle to prevent or slow down the counter attack, which resulted in Real Madrid taking the lead. Valencia CF had chances on their own as Jonas had 2 great chances, one he shot straight at the keeper, the other he missed a whole empty goal from less than 10 meters. Real Madrid second goal would come from Higuain, as he received a pass from Conetrao, though that goal was controversial as well as it seems Higuain handled the ball with his hand. 

Anyways Roberto Soldado criticized the referees after the match and said they helped Real Madrid win, Manuel Llorente was furious with the referees as well, saying every time Valencia CF plays against the big two weird decisions go against us. Of course you won't hear anything from Jose Mourinho when his team wins with refereeing help, but yells and screams if his team don't get special treatment by them. 

To make matters worse coach Ernesto Valverde has been handed a 2 match ban for simply trying to substitute a player and not being allowed to for 5 minutes. Of course Jose Mourinho can poke Tito Villanova eye and not receive any penalty, but you try to make a substitution against Real Madrid and you are out. So conveniently he has been banned for the two matches Valencia CF play against Real Madrid. I mean you can't make this stuff up. 

If I wanted to make up stuff to discredit the referees and their whole guild there is Spain, I wouldn't have been able to come up with this. I just don't have such weird and crazy imagination. Its like they try everything possible to make Valencia CF loose against Real Madrid and they don't even hide it anymore, its all out in the open. 

But enough of that, Fernando Gago obviously returned from injury and played some minutes in the last match, though he is going to start this time, as Parejo has broken a finger in the match against Real Madrid, so he will be missing for at least 2 weeks, possibly more. He is going to play as a defensive midfielder and he is best suited of course out of the others we have. Tino and Banega are probably going to start as well, though this time Tino can play more freely and venture forward more, which should be positive for Valencia CF. Of course Joao Pereira is unavailable due to accumulation of yellow cards and Albelda is still injured, though could probably return for the 2nd match in the cup.

Valencia CF squad:
Goalkeepers: Diego Alves, Vicente Guaita.
Defenders: Cissokho, Rami, Victor Ruiz, Ricardo Costa, Barragan.
Midfielders: Guardado, Gago, Ever, Tino Costa, Viera, Piatti, Canales, Bernat.
Forwards: Jonas, Valdez, Soldado.

Technical Details Valencia CF (probable setups):

Formation: 4-2-3-1

Line-up: Diego; Barragan, Rami, R. Costa, Cissokho; Gago, Tino, Banega; Piatti, Jonas, Soldado.

Tactics: Medium defensive line, own half pressure, mixed passing, mixed attacks.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid are coming to this match after a lucky victory against Valencia CF. They were second best all match long, had the referees on their side and had Jonas on their side basically, missing some crucial goals. Even before the match against Valencia CF, Real Madrid have been poor, they were second best against Osasuna as well, though again managed to get away with a draw.

Their whole season has been mixed bag with some good and bad matches and they are clearly lacking form. Right now they are still 3rd in the league with 37 points, though hopefully after tomorrow's match they'd still be sitting on the same 37 points. They have scored 45 and conceded 20 goals and of course the main goalscorer has been Cristiano Ronaldo with 16 goals and Karim Benzema leading the assists chart with 6.

Real Madrid have had trouble with their defense for some time time and have been missing their key defenders, they also had Albiol injured for a long time, before coming from injury and being put instantly in the heart of the defense. Jose Mourinho also seems to have problems with Casillas as he has been putting Adan in goal over Cassilas, though working out terribly two times. In fact come the summer, its possible Real Madrid will be looking for a new goalkeeper and Guaita could be their prime target. FC Barcelona are also on the lookout for a new goalkeeper, after they failed to reach a deal with Valdez so they are going to be looking at Guaita as well, especially since he hasn't been getting the proper minutes here at Valencia CF.

Real Madrid is also in negotiations with Milan to offload Kaka, who's been bellow par and warming the bench ever since he came in at Real Madrid, I'd say probably some of his best years wasted. He is on the way out and Real Madrid realistically lack depth this season. They only have Ozil really, got Modric in the summer, but he's been forced to play central midfield most of the time and they lack proper cover there as well with no real replacement for Alonso. They also lack cover on the left for Ronaldo and cover for right wing for the aging Arbeloa. So loosing Kaka, as insignificant as he has been will be further blow to them.

Real Madrid squad:

Goalkeepers: Casillas, Adan and Tomas Mejias.

Defenders: Varane, Coentrao, Carvalho, Arbeloa, Albiol and Nacho.

Midfielders: Khedira, Ozil, Alonso, Essien, Modric, Callejon and Di Maria.

Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema and Higuain.

Technical Details Real Madrid (probable setups):

Formation: 4-2-3-1

Line-up: Casillas; Arbeloa, Varane, Albiol, Coentrao; Xabi, Khedira; Callejon, Ozil, Ronaldo; Benzema.

Tactics: Medium defensive line, own half pressure, mostly wide wing attacks, long balls from the middle.

Result Prediction:

Valencia CF 2-1 Real Madrid

Valencia CF outplayed Real Madrid last match at the Bernabeu and after coming in as underdogs, but now playing at the Mestalla with a strong belief that they can win is going to propel Valencia CF to victory. Real Madrid are always dangerous from counter attacks with their defensive style of play, so I expect them to get one in, probably from an offside with the help of the referees. I see Valencia CF scoring two though probably one by Soldado and one by Tino Costa.