Valencia's future in European competitions

In this post last year I looked at how Valencia would benefit from European competition financially. The figures for that are almost in. Valencia have so far earned €40.75m from the Champions league (15.25m participation fee, 17.7m from the ten-year ranking, 3m per win and 0.9m per draw.) On top of that, the club gets 5.5m from the Europa league. TV money is yet to come on top of that, I'd guess around 8m, though the figures aren't usually released until mid-October. When you add gate receipts, merchandising and so on, our windfall from European competitions easily passes 60 million.

When you look at the breakdown, it's obvious that the Champions league (CL) is where it's at: we got over seven times as much money from that as the Europa league. Does that mean we should ignore the Europa league altogether? Not at all, without the ranking points from that we would be in pot 4, instead of pot 3, in next August's draw and would also receive 3.4m less in CL money next season.

Ensuring that that money keeps coming in and making progress in Europe are the big challenges ahead.

SEEDING
The news here isn't good. You would think that Valencia reaching the semi-finals of the Europa league would boost our ranking, maybe even putting us in with a chance of pot 2, but in reality we are almost unchanged from last season. This website (look under the CL tab) assumes that seeded teams win in each round. Valencia are guaranteed pot 3, but are much closer to pot 4 than pot 2. That's down to the fact that seeding is based on the last 5 years in European competition and Valencia was absent in 14/15, 16/17 and 17/18.

For ranking points, teams get 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw in European competitions. There is 1 bonus point for reaching quarters, another for the semis and another for the final. Those points are the same for either Europa league or CL. For CL, teams also get 4 bonus points for playing group stage and 5 bonus points for last 16.

Looking at the CL tab in the link above shows the problem. Valencia are 33.5 points behind the last ranked team in pot 2, Ajax. We could catch up this season but not enough. The ranking points from 15/16 then expire after next season which means that we are basically stuck in pot 3 of the CL until at least the 2022-23 season, that's the next three seasons at least playing groups of death, unless we get pot 1 by winning a European tournament. Missing a single season in Europe or failing to reach at least CL last 16 or EL quarters will prolong that. We must qualify for Europe and take whatever competition we're in seriously.

CONFIRMED CHANGES AHEAD
The problem with the current European competitions is that no one is happy with them. UEFA's tendency to give increasing numbers of guaranteed places in the group stages to a handful of top countries has forced most federations to play a ridiculous number of qualifying rounds, up to 6 for the smallest federations and 4 for most. For clubs in The Baltics, for example, that means that usually 2 or 3 of 4 entrants fall at the first hurdle, with any survivors usually culled off a round or two after that and facing unsexy ties against clubs from Scandinavia, Poland, Czechia, Belarus or The Balkans. It's hardly a way to promote interest in football in countries where ice hockey seems more interesting.

To cater for the concerns of smaller clubs, UEFA is establishing a new third-level competition, provisionally called Europa league 2 until they can think of a better title. That will start in the 2021-22 season and will feature the last qualifier from Spain, could be us if we finish 7th. The winners of that only qualify for the Europa league and the money is likely to be even worse than that so it's one for us to avoid.

SUPER LEAGUE?
Of far more interest to us are the proposed changes to the CL for 2024. Richer clubs like Manchester United are annoyed at missing out on the CL and UEFA themselves recognise the $$$ that they can earn by having them in. UEFA has suggested a more closed arrangement for the CL. Under that, there would be four groups of 8 teams instead of eight groups of 4. The bottom 8 teams would be relegated to the Europa league, with the other 24 continuing for the next season. After the inaugural season, the only way to get into the CL would be by winning the domestic league then being one of 4 teams winning play-offs between 40+ champions or finishing in the last 4 of Europa league, which would likely be a tougher prospect as all teams would take that far more seriously.

With a guaranteed 14 games instead of 6 in that, CL prize money would more than double. Valencia could potentially be looking at 100+ million a season for participating in that. A few seasons of that would more than wipe out the club's debts and leave us solvent for the first time in 30 years. But only if we get in. It's not yet been confirmed how the teams will be selected for that but the general thinking is that it would be done on the basis of UEFA's 10-year ranking, with maybe the top 32 from that or top 30 and the Europa league and CL winners from the season before. Valencia are currently 23rd in it, but more recent lists start to put us lower: 27th in the last one I can find.

It has to be said that the changes are only proposed and due to be discussed in August. Valencia and other clubs have already expressed opposition and there's a good chance the changes will be rejected, but I really think some change like that is inevitable. The idea of a European super league has been around since the late 1980s and you only have to look at recent developments to see this. Winning the domestic league is now usually not enough. In recent times, PSG have parted company with Emery and Juventus with Allegri despite domestic league success, while Valverde is under heavy pressure at Barcelona. In all cases, it's because of failings in the CL. Among major leagues, England is the only exception to this. All that suggests that a super league will happen, likely through reform of the CL and Valencia has to be in that.

Interesting and challenging years ahead.

Valencia - Arsenal (match thread)

I'm late with this and, despite the late hour, will try my best to update this post with first and second half reviews. Your comments will be appreciated.

Standard line-up from both teams with Valencia going with....

Let's hope the team can build on the 6-goal win of last weekend.

Quick update.... Valencia started well and got a good goal but then Arsenal got a goal from nowhere. I would like to blame the defence but don't even think they or Neto did a lot wrong. When you can afford to spend nearly 70 million on a forward, as English teams can do, that gives you the edge against comparable teams from other leagues. Arsenal just scored the killer second and that's it for me I'm afraid. I don't think this scoreline is representative but when La Liga is based on a corrupt model of giving all the TV money to two teams, what can we do?

Arsenal - Valencia match thread

Valencia's last game ended in a hugely disappointing defeat to Eibar, a team that had nothing to play for. That Getafe and Sevilla also lost makes it bittersweet: good that it means Valencia have an outside chance of 4th place but bad in that the team blew a chance to jump into 4th. Now, with only 3 rounds left, the team has to win all 3 remaining games, 2 of which are away against teams fighting relegation (we lost to Rayo in similar circumstances) and then hope that Sevilla and Getafe each lose a game. Time is running out and therefore the Europa league now represents our best chance of getting Champions league football.

The match squad contains few surprises, but does have the team light in midfield, with Cheryshev and Kondogbia injured and Coquelin banned.

Some of you have said in the comments that we should have both Gaya and Lato on the left, with one of them in midfield. I would go for that too, but doubt it will happen. I would expect Marcelino to go with

Neto
Gaya-Garay-Paulista-Piccini
Guedes-Parejo-Wass-Soler
Gameiro-Rodrigo

Arsenal are in a poor run of form, so hopefully Valencia can keep a clean sheet and maybe nick a crucial away goal.

FIRST HALF

I don't know what to make of that, either the line-up or the performance. Marcelino put in SIX defenders and it wasn't clear what the formation would be. Turns out to be 5-3-2 with Diakhaby playing a defensive midfield role.

Valencia started brightly and from a free kick move the ball was put across the box. Garay then produced one of the misses of the season, shooting over an empty goal when scoring would have been easier. A few minutes later Valencia had the lead and a crucial away goal. Again from a set piece, Cech and the Arsenal defence were all over the place, with Rodrigo heading back across the goal and Diakhaby heading home. Arsenal looked disorganised and another chance arrived. Not sure what the Arsenal defender was doing when he headed it back to the keeper but Guedes stole in but shot over.

The tide turned after the 15th minute, now it was Valencia's turn to be disorganised and shaky in defence. Arsenal played us at our own game, a fast counter with a goal after defensive errors. Neto came out and got caught in no man's land. 7 minutes later Valencia were behind, another poor goal to concede, a cross into the box with Roncaglia allowing Lacazette to head home and again, Neto probably could have done better.

Some positive signs, but Guedes has struggled to make an impact and so many defenders at times seems to have made the defence worse, not better.

SECOND HALF
Well, that's really poor. What is the point in having so many defenders on if we concede soft goals? Tie over for me, I just can't see us winning 2-0.

Valencia - Villarreal (Europa league) match thread

Valencia goes into the second leg of its Europa league quarter final tonight with a solid lead. The 2 late goals give the team a considerable cushion, so the main enemy is complacency. Marcelino therefore has to balance keeping the squad fit with getting the job done. Jaume, Piccini, Kondogbia and Rodrigo are out, while Garay gets a rest. Also a consideration, yellow cards are reset after tonight and Gaya, Diakhaby, Guedes and Coquelin will benefit from that as, if they get a yellow tonight, they miss the first leg of the semi at Arsenal (or Napoli.)

Given all that, I think we will see Neto and Lato. Giving Jaume a game would have been an option if fit, but playing Cristian would be a gamble too far. Gaya both needs to rest and avoid a yellow, so Lato should get the full game. For the rest of defence, I would risk Diakhaby, even if he gets the yellow, we can cover with any of the other three. Play Gabriel in the centre and Roncaglia at RB. Roncaglia hasn't been great at RB, but Wass needs some time off with Piccini out.

In midfield, Guedes should sit this one out with the yellow card threat, meaning Cheryshev starts. In the centre I'd play Parejo and Soler, with Ferran at right wing. I would then aim to replace Parejo with Wass at half time to rest him, and Cheryshev with Kang-In around minute 70.

Up front, I'd give Sobrino this game. He needs minutes, especially with Rodrigo out. I'd also give Mina a game to boost his confidence, but with the understanding he'll be subbed off for a rest around minute 60.
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HALF-TIME REPORT

Valencia were clearly superior in the first half, which was affected by driving rain. We broke the deadlock in the 12th minute. Guedes outmuscled the defender and chipped a nice ball into the path of Lato, who produced a cool finish from an angle for his first senior goal.

Valencia should have had more, but Mina made the wrong decision when we had an overload in defence and Gameiro also messed up a couple, misplacing a chip over the keeper when one-on-one.

There's a little bit of mild frustration that we haven't got the second goal we need to start making subs with an eye on the upcoming Betis game on Sunday.

SECOND HALF REPORT

A little bit of a strange substitution at half-time, Soler being replaced by Gabriel, with a reshuffle moving Roncaglia to RB and Wass to central midfield. The second goal came in the 53rd minute. Parejo's free kick took a huge deflection and it's not even sure he'll be credited with that. Parejo came off just after minute 60 for Coquelin, another strange sub since Coq was on a yellow and we could've just put Cheryshev in instead. Kang-In for Guedes was the last sub. After that, Valencia understandably relaxed a bit, the team hardly ever went past the halfway line. That's ok, but what wasn't was the team's passing became super sloppy and the team barely put more than 2 passes together. Near the end, Coquelin got a yellow card which suspends him from the first leg at Arsenal. It was never a yellow, the Villarreal player blasting it at him and the ball bouncing off his knee on to his hand. Maybe the club can appeal? But as I say, stupid decision from Marcelino to play him when the team had a 5-1 aggregate lead.

Good performances from Diakhaby, Lato and Wass with Guedes standing out again. An easy win overall and now Arsenal await.

Villarreal - Valencia (Europa league) match thread

I'm putting this place holder up at half time for comments tonight and tomorrow. No surprises in the line-up. Roncaglia at right back was dubious last time, but it's forced on the club this time, with the injury to Kondogbia, Coquelin still not fully fit and Soler suspended, meaning Wass is the only central midfielder available.

A great start for Valencia, winning an early penalty with a blatant foul on Guedes. Parejo stepped up with the pressure of a missed penalty last game on his shoulders. Sadly, it was fairly predictable that he would go for his favoured side of right of the keeper, where he usually goes, given that his attempt to switch sides last time didn't work. Saved. Luckily, Guedes followed up quickly to slot home. Valencia's only chance after that was a great cross from Ferran to Gameiro, who did excellently to create space with 2 defenders on him, but his shot was still blocked.

35th minute, Garay, who has had a below par game so far, gave away a stupid penalty to let them equalise and right now, they look more likely to score. Here's hoping for a better second half.

Valencia - Krasnodar match thread

Valencia's non-stop push on three fronts continues tonight. By the time of the Getafe game on 17 March, the team will have played 21 games in 72 days (!) Luckily, the team is now largely injury free. Garay is the only one out, while Roncaglia and Kondogbia are suspended. That leaves a squad of

As I said in a previous post, Parejo and Gaya have played against another Krasnodar team, while Roncaglia and Wass came up against Krasnodar 2 years ago while playing for Celta, Wass scored in the first game. Despite that, they're an unknown quantity. Doing well in the Russian league and could win it. Russia's winter break ended last weekend and they achieved a decent draw at Spartak Moscow. The break could go two ways, it could mean they're fresher, but could also mean they're rusty. They usually play 4-1-4-1 or occasionally 4-2-3-1, so Valencia will have to be solid in the middle.

Marcelino said this week that Europa league is a priority so I would expect a strong line-up. Likely Neto;
Gaya - Diakhaby - Gabriel - Piccini;
Guedes - Parejo - Coquelin - Soler;
Rodrigo - Gameiro.

The considerations that could affect that are that only 2 central defenders are available and Parejo needs rest, in which case we could see Coquelin starting on the bench to conserve him in case we need a reserve defender, then replacing Parejo at half time.

A good win to nil is essential. If the team wants to have a good chance of progressing 2-0 or 3-0 is needed and that won't be easy.

Leganes - Valencia match preview / Europa league draw

After an uninspiring win on Thursday, Valencia learned their Europa league rivals the following day...

Krasnodar would probably have not been one of the top 8 teams that Valencia wanted to avoid, so it's a middling to easier opponent than what we could have got, but also one that can't be underestimated, since they beat an in-form Sevilla in the group stage and overcame Bayer Leverkusen on away goals in the round of 32. While the place seems obscure, and it is only the 16th biggest Russian city, weirdly, this is the second time in 6 seasons we'll have gone there. That was to play a different Krasnodar team, Kuban, who went bankrupt last year, in the Europa league groups in late 2013. Parejo played on that occasion with Jaume an unused sub, with Gaya featuring in the Mestalla leg. Bankrolled by a Russian billionaire oligarch, they're 2nd in the Russian league and will provide a tricky test and an annoyingly long journey.

Sevilla's were top of the table in early December but defeat today to Barcelona means they have now a record of 1-1-5 in their last 7 games and have slipped out of the top 4. It's imperative that we take advantage by winning tomorrow. Winning games like these against Leganes are exactly the type of games that make the difference between top4 and also rans. It won't be easy: Leganes haven't lost at home in over 5 months.

At least Marcelino has a nearly full squad to draw on at last. Garay and Mina are the only absentees, and the latter's injury is minor. Piccini, Rodrigo and Gabriel all return, with Diakhaby available again after serving his 4-game suspension.

I suspect Marcelino will have one eye on Thursday's Copa del Rey game, so predicting the line-up is difficult. But I'd expect Neto in goal. In defence, we'll likely see Gaya-Diakhaby-Roncaglia-Piccini, though it will depend on the fitness of Piccini and Gabriel. In midfield of Cheryshev and Kondogbia, who didn't play on Thursday, should play, with Parejo ever present. Right wing will be interesting: I think Marcelino may go with Ferran and save Soler for Thursday, or we may see Wass there. Up front, I'd expect Rodrigo to be eased back in as a second hand sub. Gameiro should definitely start and then the interesting thing will be if Marcelino tries Guedes there, or sticks with Sobrino.

Europa League Round of 32: Valencia CF 1 - 0 Celtic

Valencia CF manage to see off this round of the Europa League with a 1-0 home win to add to the 2-0 away win. The 3-0 win on aggregate qualifies them to the next round, but the performance today was not too convincing.

Valencia opted to sit back and let Celtic do their thing, a luxury they could afford due to the 2 away goals they had from the previous fixture. Celtic had long spells of possession and were the more dangerous side in the first half. This all changed when Jermey Toljan received two yellow cards within 11 minutes and reduced Celtic to 10 men. The end of the first half is when Valencia really started to pick it up and a barrage of attempts at the closing minutes almost resulted in a goal. Most notable was an attempt from Parejo from the edge of the box, which changed trajectory after a deflection and almost went in, had the keeper not reacted quickly to push it over the net.

Unfortunately, Garay also picked up an injury in the later part of the first half and had to be substituted for Coquelin. Since Roncaglia is out with suspension, this was literally the only replacement we could make. This further adds to the question of why all our center-backs were allowed to leave. Either this is poor planning, terrible luck or they must have pushed for a way out, otherwise it doesn't make sense in this scenario.

The second half had a change of strategy from Celtic out of necessity. They sat back and used their pacy wingers to counter attack. This was done to get effect and we almost got caught out a few times. There were a lot of misplaced and lazy passes from our end, at the fault of several players. Wass had a terrible passing day in the first half especially, Soler had a few as well, and Coquelin a few as well.

Marcelino, dissatisfied with the performance so far and wanting to push for a win, brought on Gameiro for Sobrino, who had done decently well. Within a few minutes from coming on, Gameiro would get the winning goal. Parejo played an excellent diagonal ball to find the run of Wass on the right, who would then knock the ball down with his head into the run of Gameiro, who only had to get a clean touch for the ball to roll past the keeper.

While we did win the match, it seemed like there was a lot of whistling from the crowd, especially in the first half with all the wasted possession. Marcelino was quite clearly frustrated as well, with some players being really complacent.

Many times on the counter, we would get the space opening up and then players would slow down the game or try something complicated and would waste possession altogether. Lato and Guedes a lot whenever they would reach an advanced position. Guedes still clearly needs time after his injury to get back into the game. He had some nice flicks and tricks and he was drawing most of the challenges, including the red card. However, in the final third, he would always hesitate rather than run at defenders which I personally found frustrating.

The round of 16 draw occurs tomorrow and we will find out our opponents then. A lot of the teams left are big names, however a lot of them have had poor form . There are a few teams which we could draw that would be considered "easier" in a sense. As for our next games, we are away to Leganes on Sunday before a huge game against Betis in the Copa del Rey semi-finals second leg.

Celtic 0-2 Valencia (Europa league)

I think a few of us were a bit nervous about this one, more so when we saw the match squad and team line-up, without our THREE first-choice strikers, left back and second-choice defender. It meant it was a very makeshift line-up, in fact I think we've put out a stronger line-up when facing third level teams in the cup.

Yet, it worked and the team eased to a comfortable away win barely breaking a sweat. Marcelino had read it exactly right tactically. Wass was on the left to give extra defensive cover and he and Soler covered their fullbacks, preventing them from playing it out from the back. Parejo and Kondogbia bossed the midfield and on the rare occasions they did get past there, Garay and Diakhaby were easily able to handle their attackers. We did what we often do, sat back, let them pass around uselessly and tire themselves out, then counter attack. Celtic looked about as threatening as an 80-year-old granny with a water pistol. It was only in the first 10 minutes that they did anything, forcing a shot from Neto with a stinging shot.

We dominated the game after that, Wass nearly scored with a header before we got our opening goal. Intercepting, then a brilliant pass through for Sobrino who had just stayed onside. Good decision from him, rolling the ball to the side for Cheryshev for a tap-in.

I struggled with lagging streams in the second half, but it was pretty much the same story. We were so confident that we took Parejo off at half time to rest him. The second goal was similar, great work by Coquelin, passing out to Wass who found Cheryshev on the wing and his cross allowed Sobrino to fire home.

Guedes came on for Cheryshev as a forward, but his time up front was cut short. Piccini suffered what looked like a groin injury, so Gameiro came on, with Wass and Guedes dropping back. Piccini's injury was the only black spot. Kondogbia did pick up a booking which means he'll miss the second leg, but it was soft and I suspect he did it on purpose so he can start the round of 16 with a clean slate.

Solid team performance. Great debut from Sobrino, good games from people like Wass and Soler who haven't been performing that well recently. Key players rested. Result. Of course, there are 90 minutes still to play, so we can't be complacent, but it would be a huge upset if we blundered away such a lead in front of our own fans. If Celtic can't beat our half strength team at home, they're not going to do it away.

Celtic - Valencia match thread

Usually, I would put these up a few hours before the game, mostly because, on my time zone, games like these are finished after midnight on a working night, making it hard for me to do a write-up until next day. With a match thread at least you all at least have somewhere to comment.

In this case it goes up early because we have a match squad which seems bizarre to me.

Only 2 central defenders and only 2 recognised forwards. The former situation is forced on the club. Gabriel is injured and Roncaglia has a 4-game suspension, which means Garay-Diakhaby are the only central defensive pairing available. However, this does make the decision to send both Murillo and Vezo out on loan questionable. I know the players themselves were probably pushing for it, to get more game time, but that meant that we needed to get in a player who was available for Europe. Bad planning.

Mina and Gaya also had injuries. The latter's doesn't seem that serious, but the biggest absence is Rodrigo, who the coach has just decided to leave out. I totally don't understand that one at all, with Mina out and Rodrigo hitting form recently. I thought the whole point in resting Rodrigo against Sociedad was so he would be fresh for Europe? If he was going to be rested for Glasgow, why not just play him the full league game vs Sociedad and then give him the week off?

So up front we have Gameiro, who has only recently started to get in form. With him we either have Sobrino, making his debut in a key European game, which doesn't seem wise to me. Otherwise, we have Guedes or Cheryshev as the second striker. Sure, the two have played there before, but the last time was the 2018 world cup last summer with different teams. A crunch European game is not the time to experiment.

The only conclusion I can come to from this is that Marcelino has made a strategic decision to go easy in the Europa league and prioritise the league and Copa del Rey. If so, that's very disappointing. I really thought injury-hit Celtic were there for the taking and these decisions make it harder that we can progress. Not only does progress give us instant cash, it gives us European ranking points which mean better seeding, easier draws and a bigger share of cash next time we reach Champions league.

Europa league draw / Jeison Murillo joins Barcelona

Valencia got Celtic in Monday's Europa league draw, with the first leg in Glasgow on 14 February and the second at Mestalla 7 days later. There are no easy teams at these stages, but that's a winnable tie.

The loan of Jeison Murillo to Barcelona was confirmed today. He joins for €2 million with a buy option of €25 million. Murillo has only played three times this season: at home to Juventus and Celta and away to Ebro. While I disagree with the many fans who seem to view him as "our best defender" I don't really understand that transfer. With Garay's constant injuries and recent injuries to Gabriel and Diakhaby, why leave ourselves short in the defensive department?